Implicit web philately

Stamps

With Defrag fast approaching, I’ve been spending some cycles thinking about what the Implicit Web actually is, and where it’s going. When I’m staring at this sort of problem, a technique I find really useful is "stamp collecting". Gather as many examples as possible, list their important properties, group them into clusters and look at what patterns emerge.

Here’s my current list of Implicit Web services currently out there, with a couple that are on the borderline of the term. I’ve not got enough to meaningfully group them, so they’re alphabetical:

Adaptive Blue – More of a semantic web application, but they do offer a Firefox extension. Being client-based is a distinguishing feature of implicit web apps, since that’s the only way I know to get access to the user data needed.

Amazon – Their recommendation system is the grand-daddy of a lot of the apps that take raw information on user’s behavior, run some magic algorithms, and return something useful back to the customer. It’s a hard trick for most startups to repeat, since almost nobody has access to the Amazon’s breadth of data. This is why client-based solutions that can track behavior across many sites seem like the only practical solution.

last.fm – A true implicit web app, they have client-based tracking of the user’s behavior, they piggy-back on other people’s applications to gather their data and use that to return Amazon-style recommendations. It does make me wonder about the ‘web’ part of the term though, since that seems to imply web browsing. Maybe ‘implicit internet’ would be more appropriate?

me.dium – Another app that fully fits the term. A unique feature is that they use the social graph to combine information from multiple users, which I think is a very promising area for implicit web applications. Being able to pool data from your friends is a great way of discovering relevant new content.

MySportsNet.ca – This is one I came across relatively recently. It’s a client-side app that monitors your browsing, and tailors a sports portal site to match your interests based on that data. What’s really interesting is that it’s aimed at a mainstream audience of sports fans, rather than geeky early adopters. I know from my game career that the sports audience is massive, and willing to pay for something ties into their passion, so I’ll be following its progress closely. The only audience I know that’s similar is music, and it’s relevant that the most successful implicit app so far, last.fm, tapped into that demand.

tape failure – This is a service I’ve only read about, but unfortunately their site seems to be down at the moment. They’re not an implicit web app at all, but it does seem like they have a good solution to the browsing data collection problem.

Let me know if you think I’m missing any. I may put together a page tracking new services, since I think we’re going to be getting a lot more over the next year.

Funhouse Photo User Count
: 1,916 total, 92 active. The proportion of profile-box adds was a bit higher this time, which is promising because it scales a bit more virally than the product directory.

Event Connector User Count: 84 total, 9 active. Not much happening on this front.

Games, UI, and the implicit web

Joypad
I was a console programmer for six years. Games are the only pieces of software that people use purely for the joy of interacting with a computer. There’s no reason to play, except to have fun.

This means that the user interface is crucial. With other software, people will put up with the pain of a bad UI because they’re trying to accomplish some real-world task. If a consumer picks up a video game and it doesn’t let them have fun within a minute or two, they will give up on it. The interface has to be easy and fun. It can still be deep, but that complexity must be intuitive and discoverable, and not presented like the Space Shuttle’s control panel.

What really excites me about the implicit web is the promise of using the gathered data to turbo-charge everyday interfaces. A simple example is Firefox’s address bar; it remembers the URLs I visit, and when I start typing a new one, the suggestions are in most-visited order. By contrast, I wouldn’t class Google Suggest in the search box as an implicit service, since it doesn’t customize the suggestions based on my behavior, and it’s a lot less useful for me.

When I was working with Nintendo, the holy grail was the ‘one button game’. Think Mario 64, where you managed complex interactions with a 3D world mostly with the joystick and a single button to jump. Stumbleupon is the web service that’s closest to this, I’ve heard it described as the ‘Forward button‘ for the web, and it really delivers a lot of value with very little input needed from the user. Google Hot Keys is my attempt to move searching in that direction, though there’s no implicit component.

One of the parts I’m most anticipating about Defrag is seeing all of the innovative interfaces that the teams will be showing off. There’s so many possibilities for improving the user experience, I can’t wait to see what people are coming up with!

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,817 total, 93 active. Still growing steadily, but slowly, with most of the additions coming through the product directory.

Event Connector User Count: 77 total, 4 active. Still working with conference organizers, not much to show yet though.

Slinky companies and public transport

Slinky
Yesterday, Brad posted an article talking about bubble times in Boulder, and quoted a great line from Bill Perry about how they spawned ‘slinky companies’ that "aren’t very useful but they are fun to watch as they tumble down the stairs".

Rick Segal had a post about why he took the train to work, and how people-watching there was a great reality check to a lot of the grand technology ideas he was presented with.

And via Execupundit, I came across a column discussing whether people were really dissatisfied with their jobs, or just liked to gripe and fantasize. One employee who’d been involved in two start-ups that didn’t take off said "Most dreams aren’t market researched."

These all seemed to speak to the tough balance between keeping your feet on the ground and your eyes on the stars. As Tom Evlin’s tagline goes, "Nothing great has ever been accomplished without irrational exuberance." I’ve been wrestling with how to avoid creating a slinky with technology that sounds neat enough to be funded, but will never amount to anything. To do that, I’ve focused on solving a painful problem, and validating both the widespread existence of the problem, and that people like my solution.

I’ve turned my ideas into concrete services, and got them into the wild as quickly as possible. Google Hot Keys has proved that it’s possible to robustly extract data from screen-scraping within both Firefox and IE, but its slow take-up suggests there isn’t a massive demand for a swankier search interface. Defrag Connector shows that being able to connect with friends before a conference is really popular, but the lack of interest so far in Event Connector from conference promoters I’ve contacted shows me it won’t just sell itself. Funhouse Photo’s lack of viral growth tells me that I need to provide a compelling reason for people to contact their friends about the app, and not just rely on offering them tools to do so.

I really believe in all of these projects, but I want to know how to take them forward by testing them against the real world. All my career, I’ve avoided grand projects that take years before they show results. I’ve been lucky enough that all of the dozen or so major applications I’ve worked on have shipped, none were cancelled. Part of that is down to my choice of working on services that have tangible benefits to users, and can be prototyped and iteratively tested against that user need from an early stage. Whether it’s formal market research, watching people on trains, or just releasing an early version and seeing what happens, you have to test against reality.

I’m happy to take the risk of failing, there’s a lot of factors I can’t control. What I can control is the risk of creating something useless!

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,746 total, 70 active. Much the same as before, I haven’t made any changes yet.

Event Connector User Count: 73 total, 9 active. Still no conference takeup. I did experiment with a post to PodCamp Boston’s forum to see if I could reach guests directly, but I think the only way to get good distribution is through the organizers.

Facebook and event promotion

Partyhat
As I’ve been approaching conference organizers to try Event Connector, I’ve been surprised at how few have Facebook events. It seems like a no-brainer to me if your audience includes anyone under thirty, since it only takes a couple of minutes to create an event. In return, you get a great platform for potential guests to discover your conference, and attendees to hear from you and each other before and after the event. You’re being given permission to market to them, and even better, the participants themselves will spread the word as their attendance shows up on their friends’ feeds, and they get involved on the discussions on the event page itself.

Most of the events I have run across have been unofficial, started by participants rather than organizers. Without publicity from the promoters, these tend to attract only a few guests. To be effective you need to include a link to the event in some material that goes out to a decent number of your guests.

I don’t think it’s that conference organizers don’t want the benefits that facebook events offer, since I see a lot of organizations trying to hand-roll similar services. PodCamp Boston has a page listing all of the attendees who wanted their names to be public, but as a plain text alphabetical list, it’s a lot harder to discover friends than the equivalent on facebook. Facebook events are popular with guests, the New Media Expo 2008 one picked up over a hundred guests in the first few hours after it was created, and this is for an event almost a year away!

Trying to put myself in their shoes, I’d guess that the main obstacles are the fact that no one else is doing it, it’s an unknown quantity, it feels a bit out of their control, and they’ve never needed it before. It does require a willingness to try something new, but the reward for doing so before it’s mainstream is that you’ll get a lot of buzz, publicity and guest goodwill for taking that leap!

If you’re an event promoter, I’d highly recommend you set up a Facebook event, and give it a little promotion. It’s quick, free, and offers both you and your guests significant benefits.

Even better, once you’ve got one set up, you get an Event Connector for free. Go to the main page of the app, and your event will show up at the top. There’s a link you can mail out, and free blogger, typepad and facebook profile badges you can distribute. It adds value to the plain facebook events by allowing users to see which of their friends, and friends-of-friends, are going, which supplies the social proof that will persuade them to sign up.

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,729 total, 63 active. The same steady growth, and looking at the breakdown, I see the same pattern of non-viral acquisition of users, mostly through the directory and searches.

Event Connector User Count: 72 total, 8 active. Still very quiet, with no conference signed up, and a trickle of users from the directory.

Privacy and the implicit web

Securitycamera

Implicit web apps rely on access to information you don’t want everyone to know. Unlike traditional server driven web sites, implicit web apps often run on the user’s own machine. This gives them access to all the user’s data, whereas a web service can only see a small slice covering what the user did whilst visiting that site.

The only difference between an implicit web client app and spyware is intent. Fred Wilson has a quote "If someone’s going to spy on you, it’s probably best if it’s you." I think "If someone’s going to spy on you, it’s probably best if it’s us" is a better reflection of the current state of the implicit web scene. We aren’t empowering users by letting them own their information, and control exactly what is revealed. Instead at install time we’re asking them to sign over the right to pull all their information onto our servers.

This isn’t a big issue yet, because there’s not much awareness amongst users of the dangers. But it would only take one big privacy breach to start people worrying. We need to plan ahead to make sure we don’t get classed as spyware by zealous blockers.

I think the model for the future is something like the Attention Trust. Set up to provide a standard for the treatment of user’s web-browsing behavior, they mandate a set of principles their members must follow. In return, organizations that meet those principles can display a badge demonstrating their trustworthiness.

It’s not perfect, there’s not a rigorous inspection or application process to join, it’s mostly self-regulated, and the rules are focused on web-browsing. But it is an organization I expect to grow and mature as the demand from legitimate implicit web companies to avoid being labelled as spyware gets stronger. They also offer a very interesting Firefox extension for tracking user’s web-browsing, I’m tempted to try a port over to IE.

The trickiest practical part of this is that providing the sort of fine-grained user control will take a lot of extra engineering, and some smart UI to avoid baffling the user with a space shuttle control panel of options. Most services allow you to temporarily disable information capture, but I think one of the requirements is going to be the ability for users to remove data from your server after it’s been captured, and that’s going to be a lot harder to implement.

As I was researching this post, I ran across an article by Alex Iskold on ReadWriteWeb that was really helpful. I guess I wasn’t the first to spot Amazon as the ur-Implicit-Web-App!

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,686 total, 73 active. The stats have moved at least, but still seem a little flakey, showing data from three days ago.

Event Connector User Count: 65 total, 10 active. No progress on signing up a conference, I will be chasing this up again, and considering some different approaches to reaching organizers.

The implicit web and Clippy

Clippy

"It looks like you’re writing a blog post. Can I Help?"

Clippy was an implicit non-web application. He’s was built on a really clever piece of implicit analysis technology, and deliver a nightmarish user experience. It was so bad, there’s even a research paper devoted to exactly why he was so hated.

I try to remember Clippy when I find myself getting too deep into arcane algorithms, and too far from the user experience. One of the best pieces of advice I’ve had about application design is to imagine an actual concrete user in as much detail as possible, including a name. Then describe, step-by-step, her thoughts and actions as she tries to achieve her goal with the software. It’s amazing how many potholes you can discover with that simple process.

Fundamentally, the implicit web is about magic. It’s about weaving disorganized information into something useful. The danger comes because you’re filling in the blanks for the user, guessing at what information they want to see rather than relying on them asking for something explicit. The user pays a price every time they have to process the information you give them. If you throw irrelevant data at them, they’ll kick you to the curb, to join Clippy in his retirement.

Funhouse Photo User Count
: 1638 total, 77 active. A friend just pointed out that it’s unclear if your profile picture will get replaced when you pick from the app for the first time. That seems obvious now he says it, so I’ll be looking at making that clearer. A good example of the sort of thing it’s easy to miss when you’re focused on the technical problems.

Event Connector User Count: 46 total, 8 active. Still working on getting an ‘anchor’ conference for the app.

Build a social graph from your mailbox

Envelope
The implicit web is all about analyzing information a user has generated as part of some activity, and giving them a new way of looking at that data, generating insights they wouldn’t otherwise see. The most common source of information is web browsing, which sites are visited, which links are clicked. There is a source that’s just as interesting, but nobody’s using it; your mailbox.

Who sends mail to you, and who you respond to, how often and at what length. If you take that raw data and plot it in a graph, with links between you and people you correspond with, you end up with a pretty damn accurate graph of your relationships, limited only by the extent to which you use email to interact with your friends and colleagues. What’s more, by using the frequency of correspondence, you can approximate the strength of each relationship, and by seeing who else is included in emails, have a sketchy idea of the links between your friends.

As well as a social graph, you can also look through mail for links to web pages. Each one of those can be treated just as if that friend had voted for it in a service like Digg, and can be added to a list of the sites recommended by your local network.

Why’s no one doing this, if it’s so wonderful? Because it’s really, really hard to get to that data. Web-based email services like Google Mail or Hotmail would be able to do it on the server side, but that approach requires a large existing user-base. An alternative I’m investigating is writing an Outlook Add-In to gather some of this information. This would restrict me to business users, and involves wrestling the COM beast to the ground to implement, but I should be able to reuse some of my Internet Explorer BHO work at least.

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,552 total, 123 active. This is encouraging, another peak in the growth rate, and no public holiday to account for it this time. Perhaps the graph is becoming slightly less linear?

Event Connector User Count
: 41 total, 10 active. Not much change. I’m still talking with promoters, trying to arrange official support for another conference.

Amazon’s already built an implicit web app

Cobweb

In preparation for Defrag, I’ve been trying to organize my thoughts on the implicit web. Previously, I gave an example of how implicit information could improve search. I realized as I was thinking about this last night that there was already a successful implicit application being used by millions of people every day; Amazon’s recommendation system.

It fits well with my idea of the implicit web; it’s using the data passively collected from users behavior to offer up recommendations, there’s no user data-entry required, it’s a behind-the-scenes servant offering up useful information. So if the implicit web’s been in use for years, why do we even need the term?

Amazon is in a very rare position; they have a massive set of trusted data to work with, and they know a lot about their users. This gives them enough information to chew on and produce something useful. Very few other sites have enough breadth (number of users) and depth (information about their user’s behavior) to do anything similar. To do something comparable without owning a site like that, services have to sit on the client side and collect information as the user browses the web.

me.dium is an example of that sort of service. At the moment, they’re offering a very simple service; show me where my friends are surfing, and related sites strangers are visiting that are similar to my current page. The second part is pretty similar to Amazon’s recommendations. The really exciting bit is that once users trust you with the data about where they’re surfing, and what their friends are, you can build some really compelling services. Here’s a few examples of what I’d do with that information:

  • Build an implicit list of favorites based on how often a user visits sites, and how long they spend there. Let them use it as a bookmark toolbar, or even publish it to their friends as their current favorites.
  • Highlight links that other people took most often to leave a page, and show pages they came from most often, giving friends a higher influence.
  • Let the user ‘stumble-upon’ pages that are popular with their friends right now.

I’m really excited about the possiblities, and I’m looking forward to some interesting conversations at Defrag!

Funhouse Photo User Count: 1,251 total, 60 active. Weird, a big jump from yesterday, almost 90 users, but the stats page claims only 22 adds in the last 24 hours. I’m not sure what’s up, but I’m not complaining!

Event Connector User Count: 36 total, 9 active. Not much change in the numbers, but there has been some progress. Tim from New Media Expo has set up a Facebook event for their 2008 show, and has around 100 guests so far. You can try out the connector here, I’m hoping that it will be as popular as it was for Defrag.

A practical implicit web example

Web

It took me a while to warm to the term implicit web, but I’ve realized it is a good container for a lot of the improvements in browsing I want to see. I always find concrete examples better than abstract definitions, so I’ll outline a user experience I’d like to build, and how that ties in with the definition.

I have a handful of sites that I visit very often, because they contain trusted information in areas I work on.  I use the term local neighborhood to describe this set of sites. When I do a search, I want these sites ranked very highly, because their results are very relevant to me.

A lot of my friend’s interests overlap mine, and I am more likely to find relevant results in sites they visit frequently. I’d like my searches to rank sites in my friends local neighborhoods more highly too.

This is an implicit web process because the local neighborhood is built implicitly, from monitoring my browsing history, rather than some explicit method such as bookmarking. This is important because almost all users will not take explicit actions, even if they will produce some long-term gain. Technologies that rely on users doing something that feels like work end up stuck in a geek ghetto.  Nobody I know who works outside IT, uses del.icio.us.

General users are more willing than us to surrender some privacy in return for improved features. me.dium relies on this. I’m trusting them with my entire browsing history, and in return they give me information and communication about other users in my current local neighborhood.

Google is moving in the direction I want with its search history feature, but that only biases sites that you find through searching. I go to my local sites through typing the first few letters in the address bar, so they won’t be included. Flock has a search history feature too, that looks through the pages you’ve browsed recently. This is closer, but your history is kept locally, so you easily lose it if you move machines, reinstall, etc.

Neither of these approaches work with my friends’ local neighborhoods. There’s a serious obstacle to this happening; the information about my social graph is stored in a database owned by a different company than the one I use for searching. At the moment, information like this is only ever shared within an organization, since it’s treated as valuable and proprietary. This sucks for users, since they created a lot of the information themselves, and they can see it all, so why can’t their software?

Aggregators try to get around this by having users give them their passwords and user names, and screen-scraping using a central server. This is both fiddly for users to set up, and easy for the providers to block if they want. A few services also offer a web API, but these are fairly limited in the information they provide, and subject to being blocked by the providers at any time. The fundamental conflict is that the value of these companies is largely based on their data, and they aren’t about to give it away to a competitor.

A better way to solve this is with the semantic web. The idea is you make web-pages understandable by software, not just human readable. As you browsed Myspace, client-side software would interpret each page and discover who your friends are, and the more important ones whose profiles you visit, or who you exchange messages with.

Sounds great, but so far it’s been a pipe-dream, because it’s like web APIs, there hasn’t been a good reason to make your pages easily understandable by third-party software.

One of my big research efforts is finding some simple, practical ways of jump-starting this process, by using simple rules to reliably work out semantic information about a web page. Google Hot Keys is one result of this work; it analyzes pages to work out which are search results, what the search terms are, which links are the pages associated with those terms, and what the ‘next page’ link is. It’s promising to see that the rules are robust enough that they work with over 40 different foreign language Google sites, as well as Ask and Live.

It seems to me that the only way to fulfill the promise of the implicit web is to combine client-side technologies that have access to all the information a user does, and software that can pull data directly from the web-pages as they browse.

Funhouse Photo User Count: 944 total, 63 active. A bit of a larger total increase, still not very exciting.
Event Connector User Count: 5 total. The adwords campaign has gained me one user, got 16 clicks, and cost $1.13 so far. Probably time to change tactics!

Event Connector launched

Defragconnectorscreenshot

I’ve just finished a follow-up to Defrag Connector, Event Connector. It’s got the same functionality for guests, showing who in their social graph is going. The main improvement is that you can now do this for any Facebook event, with a main page that lets you pick from the ones you’re attending. It also lets you add an event button, with a link to the connector, to TypePad and Blogger blogs.

My strategy is to appeal to event organizers, and let them drive the distribution to their guests. That just pushes the distribution problem up a level of course, now I have to reach organizers rather than attendees.

I’m counting on organizers being a lot more motivated than guests to search out promotional tools.  If that’s true, then even fairly passive marketing tools like appearing in the apps directory and word-of-mouth should be effective in reaching them. I’m starting the ball rolling by reaching out to some of my own friends who do a lot of event promotion, and we’ll see where it goes from there.

Here’s the pain-points I’m trying to address:

  • Organizers: Persuades people to attend by supplying the social proof that others they know are going
  • Organizers: Lets people know that the event is happening, by spreading buttons on people’s profiles and blogs
  • Guests: Answers the question ‘who do I know that’s going?’
  • Guests: A simple way to advertise their support and attendance at an event

Funhouse Photo User Count: 917 total, 57 active. Still the same growth as the last week. I don’t have any ideas for making it more involving yet, at least not any that I can do in the time I have available. The statistical usage analysis definitely has to be the next step here, I need to understand what’s working, and what isn’t.